Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Wed---No pick, but some comments on my trading system

I have scaned all the shares today, and can't really find one with good entry point.
Novena is at good position. Especially, today the buy volume is extremely larger than sell volume. what is going in this share, let's wait and see.
Allgreen break the cut loss level. according to the plan, sell it at 1.16. You probably have 300 dollars lost if you bought in at 1.19.

There is a famous saying in wall street, which is also the fundamental theory in my trading system: cut loss, let profit run. However, this saying is perfectly TRUE, but perfectly USELESS or even harmful without one presumption. The presumption is that whenever you buy a share the WIN chance must be higher than LOSE chance. A lot of people know about cut loss and let profit run, but very few people really understand the presumption. And "cut loss" is essentially why they lose money in market. this is how my blog come about. I scan for shares that have greater chance to "win" and give the plan for trading. If you follow my plan recently, you will notice that the up scope in my picked shares are at least one times higher than the down scope. It is certain that one day sooner or later you will have to cut loss and loss money according to my plan. But I can also promise you that:
1. you loss is capped.
2. in the long run, you will win.

Just want to mention again. What I scan for is the entry point of a trend. I believe once a trend is established, it will last some time until the trend is broken. Therefore, once the price reach my first target price, it doesn't mean you have to sell the share, but rather raise the cut loss level. with regarding to where the cut loss level should be raised to, it is personal preference question. you can raise it to the first target price, or half way between the entry price of the first target price. One thing for sure is that you have to raise the cut loss level. therefore, once the price goes up, you are guarantee for some profit. Small money like a few hundred won't make a difference. I believe in big money like a few K, a few 10K or even more, thus I won't easily sell a share if it is in a up trend.

3 days ago, I said S CHIPs start moving in my blog because a lot of s chips came out as a candidate from my trading system. Today, s chips became crazy, which is earlier than i previously though. S chip is also a bit difficult to play. Just in one day, most of them reaches my first target price already. Moreover, I still hold negative view on the wind (STI, US market). I won't easily buy unless I feel it is safe enough.

One more thing I want to say it again. I DO NOT LIKE biosensor. Recently, it is talking about issuing bonds, which indicates that this company is a rubbish company. I have never bought this share, and I will not buy this share in near future.

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